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##### Donkey Kong High Score Lists / Re: Billy Mitchell's Direct Feed Recordings are MAME Generated

« Last post by**Sqrlmonger**on

*February 23, 2018, 10:16:21 AM*»

I just wanted to add this as an example of how I have been analyzing the MAME evidence.

The graph above demonstrates the probabilities (as inverses, which I find is a more human relaetable format) involved in a single game worth of MAME transitions. To make the analysis I had to assume the probability that an artifact resulting from the capture process would generate MAME like behaviors. In this case the graph presents 10%, 20%, and 30%, but I have a spreadsheet showing probabilities for 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, and 90% as well. I think myself, and those who know far more than myself, realize that 30% is a very generous likelihood that the confluence of factors necessary would make a normal arcade transition appear MAME-like. This is particularly true given the fact that it ignores the odds of such stupendous coincidence in the first place. Nevertheless, my spreadsheet analysis accounts for the possibility of further developments on this front.

I will leave the graph for others to draw their own conclusions, I will just note the following two examples of other highly improbable events:

PS - Apologies for not making the y-axis in scientific notation, I felt it was important for impact that people really see how big these numbers are.

Edit: Oh I also wanted to stress that the graphs are already making the assumption that Billy can demonstrate a method by which an arcade transition can be made to look like a MAME transition. This is why the lower end of the graph has upward tails, because there is also improbability in a low probability event not happening at all over 84 transititions (I might be off in my number there, but I can easily adjust my analysis as needed). Again, the tails at the lower end of the chart are because even a low 10%-30% probability event should occur a couple of times when given 84 chances.

**NOTE: The y-axis of the graph is on a logarithmic scale (if anyone is unsure what this means read here).**The graph above demonstrates the probabilities (as inverses, which I find is a more human relaetable format) involved in a single game worth of MAME transitions. To make the analysis I had to assume the probability that an artifact resulting from the capture process would generate MAME like behaviors. In this case the graph presents 10%, 20%, and 30%, but I have a spreadsheet showing probabilities for 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, and 90% as well. I think myself, and those who know far more than myself, realize that 30% is a very generous likelihood that the confluence of factors necessary would make a normal arcade transition appear MAME-like. This is particularly true given the fact that it ignores the odds of such stupendous coincidence in the first place. Nevertheless, my spreadsheet analysis accounts for the possibility of further developments on this front.

I will leave the graph for others to draw their own conclusions, I will just note the following two examples of other highly improbable events:

- Winning the Power Ball Lottery Jackpot - 1 in 175,000,000
- 13 Loci DNA Match with a random person - 1 in 421,000,000,000,000

PS - Apologies for not making the y-axis in scientific notation, I felt it was important for impact that people really see how big these numbers are.

Edit: Oh I also wanted to stress that the graphs are already making the assumption that Billy can demonstrate a method by which an arcade transition can be made to look like a MAME transition. This is why the lower end of the graph has upward tails, because there is also improbability in a low probability event not happening at all over 84 transititions (I might be off in my number there, but I can easily adjust my analysis as needed). Again, the tails at the lower end of the chart are because even a low 10%-30% probability event should occur a couple of times when given 84 chances.